...by Daniel Szego
quote
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication."
Leonardo da Vinci

Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Bear market strategy on IT markets


Market goes up, market goes down, however the major question what to do if you are on a technology market and the technology goes down. 
Well certainly there are some trivial things that you can do, like
- If you have stocks sell
- If you have the competence do not invest to keep the competence up-to-date in anymore.
- If you have competent people on the field let them reeducate. 
- If you have product on the field then stop them to develop further.

However the problem is that with these strategies you only quit from the technology, stop investing, but without making money.If we are on the stock market and the market goes down than sell short to make profit. Is there any similar step if you are coicdently not on the stock market ?  

Well difficult question....Let we see what happens if a technology goes down:
- Selling the new technology is being reduced. 
- Existing customers do not upgrade and invest into the technology, instead they leaving the technology to expire.
- Existing customers start the new projects and investments in another technologies. 
- On a short run there will be more expert and developer on the field than business opportunities, as a consequent consulting and development price decreases.

On a long run, it might be that it is worth to stay with the technology, because it is right that the market is smaller, but as the number of experts are limited as well there is still a chance to do good business. I guess one example is dor instance AS400, the technology itself is pretty much old and used only by a couple of companies. However as there is only a handful of companies that have the high expertise, the market itself is profitable.
So what are the other options :
- Investing on alternative technology: As one technology goes down another one is coming up. New projects will be probably in the new technology.
- Building migration tool: building migration tool to another technology that is coming up can be a good idea. As the customers considering the change of technology the companies will have the advantage that are prepared to migration. 
- Create integration: focus on integration with an alternative technology. Most customer still have the old technology, however as a further development they rather focus on new ways. For such scenarios integration can be good idea.
- ??? good question what is still possible ???