...by Daniel Szego
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication."
Leonardo da Vinci

Monday, December 17, 2018

Notes on thinking linear about an exponential technology

At dealing with exponential technologies, we usually do not have technological problems, but rather human problems:
Linear thinking bias: The human brain struggles to understand nonlinear relationships, which are most often how technological revolutions behave. Short-term developments are generally overestimated, while long-term developments are underestimated.